IMF’s successive global growth forecasts
Downward revisions to global growth continue
Source: IFM Investors, IFM April 2019 World Economic Outlook
Most investors and economists have already concluded that global economic growth peaked in 2017 and early 2018, and will soften further in 2019. Equally, at this stage, fears of imminent recession are overblown.
While it is relatively uncontroversial to expect that growth in 2019 will decelerate, it is more so expecting a rebound in growth in 2020 (and beyond). But this is just what the IMF has done, with expectations that global growth will pick back
up in 2020 to 3.6%. The IMF justifies its outlook by suggesting emerging markets will be the drivers of growth over the next five years. But it does note that risks are to the downside, particularly from an increase in trade tensions among
other factors, which cannot be understated in our view.