Summary

US election dominates

Nervousness ahead of the US election dominated markets and news flow over much of late October and early November. Polls were close heading into the election and the composition of voter turnout was seemingly going to be decisive. Markets reacted to the uncertainty by selling off and volatility rose across asset classes.

US election: 232 million eligible voters
One-in-four gets Trump over the line

Economic-Update-Nov-2016-Graph

Source: IFM Investors, fivethirtyeight.com

In the end there was an outcome that went against what most polls and close observers were suggesting. One that arguably we should have been less surprised by in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. Donald Trump, although lagging in the polls for the entire campaign, became President-elect. The victory was resounding as Republican wins in both the House and the Senate also occurred – a clean sweep.

The latest reports suggest that Trump has won a projected 306 electoral college votes to Clinton’s 232. However, this does not reflect how close the popular vote was, with Clinton holding a slight advantage 47.7% to 47.5%. Voter turnout was solid. Of Americans that were eligible to vote, 56.8% did so, higher than the 54.9% in 2012 but lower than the 57.1% in 2008.