Economic Update September 2024
Global growth remains resilient however recent dataflow suggests slowing momentum. As disinflation progresses, labour markets and growth will guide monetary settings. However, the outlook remains asynchronous. Renewed recession concerns on soft US jobs and unexpectedly hawkish commentary by the Bank of Japan imparted historic volatility across global markets.
Economic growth across the major developed economies continued to be robust in the face of still tight monetary policy in the second quarter. However, higher frequency data since have been mixed or softer depending on the country. Consequently, while inflation is not completely defeated, central banks have now either started to cut rates or are poised to do so. Market reactions have depended on jurisdiction where the growth narrative is weakest.