Economic Update June 2025

Key takeaways |
Economic Growth: Ongoing downside risks to global growth, notably in the US. US stagflation risks, most others disinflation risks. |
Geopolitics: Uncertainty remains extremely high based on announcements from US Administration |
Equity markets: Earnings still discounting economic downside. |
Fixed income: Starting yields attractive, HY credit also discounting economic risks. |
Equity markets recoiled in the aftermath of ‘Liberation Day’ but it was a reversal in the bond market that saw the Trump Administration reassess. Equities have rallied since then on incrementally better news flow, but uncertainty still clouds the economic outlook. Bond markets face their own challenges as yields edge higher due to stagflation and fiscal risks in the US.
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