Economic Update July 2019
Summary
Economic risks rise and markets rally
Global trade tensions remained a key focus of markets over recent weeks, clouding the outlook for economic growth. However, there has been some indication out of the G20 meeting in Osaka that US-China trade tensions will not deteriorate further in the near term. While US-China tensions may have eased, there are still concerns about US measures against Europe and Japan.
Global: Bond and equity markets
Bond and equity markets disagree on the economic outlook
Source: IFM Investors, MSCI, Macrobond
If trade tensions were not enough, US President Trump castigated European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi for his dovish shift in June (which contributed to a slide in the euro), claiming Draghi is manipulating the currency.
While central banks highlight downside risks, the signal from markets is less clear. Indeed, equity and bond markets can’t seem to agree on what the future may hold for the global economy. Equity markets remain well supported, whereas bond markets view central bank action as a warning.
About the author
Chief Economist
Alex Joiner, PhD
Joined in 2016
Alex Joiner is Chief Economist at IFM Investors. He is responsible for the firm’s economic, financial market and geopolitical risk analysis that is key in IFM’s investment process. In this capacity he engages with IFM’s domestic and global clients on macro-investment trends and themes. He is a frequent commentator on economic and markets via traditional and social media and regularly speaks at public forums and conferences. He has over two decades of professional experience in economic and markets and prior to joining IFM was the Chief Economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Australian & New Zealand) after being a senior economist at ANZ Bank. He holds a First Class honours degree in Economics and a PhD in Econometrics from Monash University. Alex is also committee member of the Australian Business Economists.