Economic Update November 2016
US election dominates
Nervousness ahead of the US election dominated markets and news flow over much of late October and early November. Polls were close heading into the election and the composition of voter turnout was seemingly going to be decisive. Markets reacted
to the uncertainty by selling off and volatility rose across asset classes.
US election: 232 million eligible voters
One-in-four gets Trump over the line
Source: IFM Investors, fivethirtyeight.com
In the end there was an outcome that went against what most polls and close observers were suggesting. One that arguably we should have been less surprised by in the wake of the UK’s Brexit vote. Donald Trump, although lagging in the polls
for the entire campaign, became President-elect. The victory was resounding as Republican wins in both the House and the Senate also occurred – a clean sweep.
The latest reports suggest that Trump has won a projected 306 electoral college votes to Clinton’s 232. However, this does not reflect how close the popular vote was, with Clinton holding a slight advantage 47.7% to 47.5%. Voter turnout
was solid. Of Americans that were eligible to vote, 56.8% did so, higher than the 54.9% in 2012 but lower than the 57.1% in 2008.
About the author
Alex Joiner, PhD
Joined in 2016
Alex Joiner is Chief Economist at IFM Investors. He is responsible for the firm’s economic, financial market and geopolitical risk analysis that is key in IFM’s investment process. In this capacity he engages with IFM’s domestic and global clients on macro-investment trends and themes. He is a frequent commentator on economic and markets via traditional and social media and regularly speaks at public forums and conferences. He has over two decades of professional experience in economic and markets and prior to joining IFM was the Chief Economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Australian & New Zealand) after being a senior economist at ANZ Bank. He holds a First Class honours degree in Economics and a PhD in Econometrics from Monash University. Alex is also committee member of the Australian Business Economists.