Economic Update August 2019
Summary
Monetary efforts entrenched
The era in which major global central banks have sought to remove post-financial crisis monetary stimulus has now officially drawn to a close. This comes with the US Federal Reserve easing its policy rate for the first time since 2008. But the
Fed is only the latest in a list of global central banks highlighting downside global economic risks and weaker inflationary pressures.
Global: US real GDP growth cycles
The longest economic expansion for the least growth
Source: IFM Investors, BEA, NBER, Macrobond *expansion start year indicated in brackets
While central bankers have come to realise that monetary policy, particularly at this point in the cycle, needs help, there remains a mixed capability or desire for governments to add material fiscal stimulus, largely due to concerns around public
sector debt.
While direct fiscal stimulus is relatively easy, a reform agenda is more politically difficult, less direct and longer term. It is concerning the advanced economies of the world are threatening to “turn Japanese” with regard to a sustained
period of very low rates.
About the author
Chief Economist
Alex Joiner, PhD
Joined in 2016
Alex Joiner is Chief Economist at IFM Investors. He is responsible for the firm’s economic, financial market and geopolitical risk analysis that is key in IFM’s investment process. In this capacity he engages with IFM’s domestic and global clients on macro-investment trends and themes. He is a frequent commentator on economic and markets via traditional and social media and regularly speaks at public forums and conferences. He has over two decades of professional experience in economic and markets and prior to joining IFM was the Chief Economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Australian & New Zealand) after being a senior economist at ANZ Bank. He holds a First Class honours degree in Economics and a PhD in Econometrics from Monash University. Alex is also committee member of the Australian Business Economists.