Economic Update December 2019
Summary
Economic outlook is anything but 20-20
The past year was characterised by a global slowdown precipitated by increasing geopolitical uncertainty and heightened trade frictions. Central banks responded with coordinated monetary easing that buoyed equity markets despite the softening economic fundamentals. However, with monetary policy already nearing its limits, the efficacy of further cuts has been questioned with many central banks calling for fiscal policy-makers to open the taps and support growth. Fiscal stimulus will likely not be forthcoming and the outlook for 2020 continues to be soft with risks appearing tilted to the downside.
Global: Key developed markets equity performance
Equity markets were choppy in late 2019 but finished strong
Despite the uncertainty, several key global equity markets are heading into the final month of the year at or near fresh record highs. This performance comes just a few months after bond markets rallied and priced in peak levels of pessimism.
Reading these dynamics together, it feels like the year can be adequately described as one in which there was plenty to be concerned about, but investors do not want to miss out on any market rally, and they are confident central banks will keep the stimulus coming.
About the author
Chief Economist
Alex Joiner, PhD
Joined in 2016
Alex Joiner is Chief Economist at IFM Investors. He is responsible for the firm’s economic, financial market and geopolitical risk analysis that is key in IFM’s investment process. In this capacity he engages with IFM’s domestic and global clients on macro-investment trends and themes. He is a frequent commentator on economic and markets via traditional and social media and regularly speaks at public forums and conferences. He has over two decades of professional experience in economic and markets and prior to joining IFM was the Chief Economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Australian & New Zealand) after being a senior economist at ANZ Bank. He holds a First Class honours degree in Economics and a PhD in Econometrics from Monash University. Alex is also committee member of the Australian Business Economists.
About the author
Economist
Frans van den Bogaerde, CFA
Joined in 2019
Frans supports the Chief Economist with the firm’s economic, financial market, and policy analysis and forecasting. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance & Economics) with Honours in Finance (First Class) from the University of Melbourne. Prior to joining IFM Investors Frans was undertaking his Honours degree and was a researcher with the Brain Mind and Markets Lab at the University of Melbourne.