Economic Update July 2018
Summary
IFM Investors Economic Update
As the second half of 2018 begins it appears that peak investor and participant bullishness towards the much vaunted synchronous global economic cycle has now passed. It is early days, but there are already signs that this cycle is becoming distinctly
less synchronous as variations in economic growth become more prevalent. This is true in both developed and emerging markets, and across regions and individual countries. As forecasters factor this into expectations, the prospect of a distinct
deceleration of growth is apparent.
Global: Investor sentiment
Investor’s current bullish attitude is fading as future concerns build
Source: IFM Investors, Sentix, Macrobond
Added to this narrative, externalities are also threatening further downside risks. These include: political risks, particularly in the Eurozone and emerging markets; geopolitical tensions; the impact of tighter monetary conditions emanating out
of the US; and, arguably the most concerning risk amongst them, “trade wars” between the US, China and others (either willingly or unwillingly). In a desynchronising environment, these factors will present economic risks to both
stronger and weaker economies, especially those that remain economically and fiscally fragile, have internal and external imbalances, and have central banks still looking to extricate themselves from long periods of extreme monetary policy
accommodation.
About the author
Chief Economist
Alex Joiner, PhD
Joined in 2016
Bachelor of Economics (Hons) (Latrobe University), PhD (Econometrics) (Monash University).
Alex is IFM Investors’ Chief Economist and has more than a decade of experience in the field. He is responsible for the firm’s economic, financial market and policy analysis and forecasting. Alex is also a member of the firm’s Investment Committee. Prior to joining IFM Investors, Alex was the Australian Chief Economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch. In this role, Alex was responsible for providing economic insight and forecasts across asset classes and conveying these views to both domestic and global investors. Alex was also previously a Senior Economist at the ANZ Bank.