Economic Update July 2018
Summary
IFM Investors Economic Update
As the second half of 2018 begins it appears that peak investor and participant bullishness towards the much vaunted synchronous global economic cycle has now passed. It is early days, but there are already signs that this cycle is becoming distinctly
less synchronous as variations in economic growth become more prevalent. This is true in both developed and emerging markets, and across regions and individual countries. As forecasters factor this into expectations, the prospect of a distinct
deceleration of growth is apparent.
Global: Investor sentiment
Investor’s current bullish attitude is fading as future concerns build
Source: IFM Investors, Sentix, Macrobond
Added to this narrative, externalities are also threatening further downside risks. These include: political risks, particularly in the Eurozone and emerging markets; geopolitical tensions; the impact of tighter monetary conditions emanating out
of the US; and, arguably the most concerning risk amongst them, “trade wars” between the US, China and others (either willingly or unwillingly). In a desynchronising environment, these factors will present economic risks to both
stronger and weaker economies, especially those that remain economically and fiscally fragile, have internal and external imbalances, and have central banks still looking to extricate themselves from long periods of extreme monetary policy
accommodation.
About the author
Chief Economist
Alex Joiner, PhD
Joined in 2016
Alex Joiner is Chief Economist at IFM Investors. He is responsible for the firm’s economic, financial market and geopolitical risk analysis that is key in IFM’s investment process. In this capacity he engages with IFM’s domestic and global clients on macro-investment trends and themes. He is a frequent commentator on economic and markets via traditional and social media and regularly speaks at public forums and conferences. He has over two decades of professional experience in economic and markets and prior to joining IFM was the Chief Economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Australian & New Zealand) after being a senior economist at ANZ Bank. He holds a First Class honours degree in Economics and a PhD in Econometrics from Monash University. Alex is also committee member of the Australian Business Economists.