Economic Update March 2020
Summary
Virus to challenge economies and markets
The sense of cautious optimism that greeted 2020 has already evaporated following the emergence of a new virus. China – the epicentre of the outbreak – is likely to suffer a material economic shock that will reverberate globally, given its strict containment measures. Other countries have also been forced to implement economically disruptive policies, further compounding the issue.
Australian exports of goods and services to China
Australia is heavily exposed to China like few others
Sources: IFM Investors, DFAT, Macrobond
Considering the nature of this shock, Australia is particularly exposed as China is far and away our largest trading partner for both goods and services. Resources exposure, via iron ore and coal, is well understood but more recently, it is the
services export boom that has been important for Australian growth. Chinese nationals account for around one in four students enrolled in the education sector and one in six tourists. It is via this services exports channel that COVID-19 will
impact most heavily the Australian economy.
It is uncontroversial to expect a material global economic slowdown, but there is much uncertainty as to its severity and duration and the policy response. The Australian economy is likely to record a negative quarter of growth in Q1 2020 and
two negative quarters, a technical recession, can’t be ruled out.
You can read a summary or download the full Economic Update (March 2020) by clicking the link below:
About the author
Chief Economist
Alex Joiner, PhD
Joined in 2016
Alex Joiner is Chief Economist at IFM Investors. He is responsible for the firm’s economic, financial market and geopolitical risk analysis that is key in IFM’s investment process. In this capacity he engages with IFM’s domestic and global clients on macro-investment trends and themes. He is a frequent commentator on economic and markets via traditional and social media and regularly speaks at public forums and conferences. He has over two decades of professional experience in economic and markets and prior to joining IFM was the Chief Economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Australian & New Zealand) after being a senior economist at ANZ Bank. He holds a First Class honours degree in Economics and a PhD in Econometrics from Monash University. Alex is also committee member of the Australian Business Economists.
About the author
Economist
Frans van den Bogaerde, CFA
Joined in 2019
Frans supports the Chief Economist with the firm’s economic, financial market, and policy analysis and forecasting. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance & Economics) with Honours in Finance (First Class) from the University of Melbourne. Prior to joining IFM Investors Frans was undertaking his Honours degree and was a researcher with the Brain Mind and Markets Lab at the University of Melbourne.