Economic Update September 2019
Summary
Global: Trade tensions rise
Global: Key developed markets equity performance
Equity markets sold-off as trade tensions escalated
Source: IFM Investors, MSCI, Macrobond * updated on 09/09/2019
August was a challenging month for equity markets with focus back on the US-China trade war, which escalated markedly. This saw recession fears re-emerge as the flow through impact from weaker trade growth now threatens to flow through economies – particularly those exposed heavily to global trade.
The escalation of trade tensions occurred early in the month with US President Donald Trump announcing a 10% tariff on a further US$300bn of imported Chinese goods scheduled to take effect in September and December. This round of tariffs is aimed largely at consumer goods rather than raw materials and will likely have a more pronounced negative impact on US consumption.
Broader global uncertainty around trade is negatively impacting investment growth in many advanced nations. This suggests a softer tone of global growth will prevail as we move into 2020. With no sign of the trade war abating anytime soon, this trend is likely to continue.
About the author
Chief Economist
Alex Joiner, PhD
Joined in 2016
Alex Joiner is Chief Economist at IFM Investors. He is responsible for the firm’s economic, financial market and geopolitical risk analysis that is key in IFM’s investment process. In this capacity he engages with IFM’s domestic and global clients on macro-investment trends and themes. He is a frequent commentator on economic and markets via traditional and social media and regularly speaks at public forums and conferences. He has over two decades of professional experience in economic and markets and prior to joining IFM was the Chief Economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Australian & New Zealand) after being a senior economist at ANZ Bank. He holds a First Class honours degree in Economics and a PhD in Econometrics from Monash University. Alex is also committee member of the Australian Business Economists.