Economic Update September 2020
Summary
In the eye of the economic storm
The scale of the initial economic shock caused by the COVID-19 crisis has become clear with the release of the June quarter GDP data across the globe. Many countries have suffered the steepest fall in output since official records began, almost all are in recession and the path to recovery is anything but certain. There has been a worrying resurgence in COVID-19 cases in several countries, following a tentative easing of restrictions, which poses significant downside risks to the outlook. Accordingly, fiscal and monetary stimulus will likely need to remain in place for much longer than initially expected.
In Australia, Q2 real GDP fell 7.0%qoq. This was weaker than expected and the worst result in the history of the modern national accounts since 1959. But it was still better than most advanced economies at this stage of the pandemic, where the median decline was 9.7%qoq.
US S&P500 Bear Market Recoveries
Sources: IFM Investors, Bloomberg. Document finalized on September 3rd
Despite the still sobering economic environment, global equity markets have made a strong recovery, buoyed by aggressive stimulus measures. In the US, equities have recorded the most rapid recovery from a bear market in living memory. This largely reflects the tailwind of extreme global monetary stimulus, unprecedented fiscal stimulus and exuberance from investors who are looking through bad news to embrace the good.
About the author
Chief Economist
Alex Joiner, PhD
Joined in 2016
Alex Joiner is Chief Economist at IFM Investors. He is responsible for the firm’s economic, financial market and geopolitical risk analysis that is key in IFM’s investment process. In this capacity he engages with IFM’s domestic and global clients on macro-investment trends and themes. He is a frequent commentator on economic and markets via traditional and social media and regularly speaks at public forums and conferences. He has over two decades of professional experience in economic and markets and prior to joining IFM was the Chief Economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (Australian & New Zealand) after being a senior economist at ANZ Bank. He holds a First Class honours degree in Economics and a PhD in Econometrics from Monash University. Alex is also committee member of the Australian Business Economists.
About the author
Economist
Frans van den Bogaerde, CFA
Joined in 2019
Frans supports the Chief Economist with the firm’s economic, financial market, and policy analysis and forecasting. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance & Economics) with Honours in Finance (First Class) from the University of Melbourne. Prior to joining IFM Investors Frans was undertaking his Honours degree and was a researcher with the Brain Mind and Markets Lab at the University of Melbourne.