Economic Updates

Economic Update

2023 Economic Outlook

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

There are downside risks to global growth in 2023 as central banks are expected to keep tightening monetary policy to slow persistent inflation. The speed at which inflation decelerates will be a key focus for investors.

Economic Update

Economic Update December 2022

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Advanced economies are navigating the dual challenge of high inflation and weakening growth. Policy tightening will likely continue, suggesting downside risks to growth in 2023. This is the cost of central banks trying to lower inflation.

Economic Update

Economic Update September 2022

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Advanced economies continue to navigate a challenging environment. Inflation remains elevated and central banks have signalled that a painful period of adjustment lies ahead. Households are set to bear the brunt and recession risk is increasing.

Economic Update

Economic Update June 2022

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Frans van den Bogaerde,
Economist

The global growth outlook continues to soften, with rampant inflation and the challenging withdrawal of the extremely accommodative monetary settings, but policy tightening is the correct course of action for central banks.

Economic Update

Economic Update March 2022

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Hawkish monetary policy tightening expectations and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are both impacting at a time when many economies remain vulnerable. This is making the already challenging job of central bankers even harder.

Economic Update

2022 Economic Outlook

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

In 2022, we expect policymakers to work towards fixing global supply-demand imbalances. So asset markets will need to cope with policy normalisation, slowing growth rates and the Omicron COVID variant that presents downside growth risks.

Economic Update

Economic Update December 2021

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Policymakers globally face the unenviable task of guiding the transition to a new normal, with a focus on fixing supply-demand imbalances and helping both inflation and unemployment to fall. There is little room for error.

Economic Update

Economic Update September 2021

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Many advanced economies are close to ‘peak rebound’ from pandemic driven recessions, with the tailwinds of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy set to fade and supply constraints posing a headwind to future growth.

Economic Update

Economic Update June 2021

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Advanced economies will experience stronger near-term growth as economies re-open and are fuelled by ongoing stimulus. Recent US inflation concerns have impacted markets but should be transitory as demand and supply normalise following the recovery phase.

Economic Insight

The impact of unlisted infrastructure assets on portfolios

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Frans van den Bogaerde,
Economist

Unlisted infrastructure has the potential to provide solid returns in a low-yielding world that can facilitate effective portfolio diversification and contribute to improved risk adjusted returns.

Economic Update

Economic Update March 2021

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Global economies have come through what appears to be the worst of the COVID-19 crisis, with continued policy support and the roll out of vaccines giving rise to a relatively optimistic outlook.

Economic Update

Economic Update December 2020

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Globally, a surge in COVID-19 in Q4 will weigh on near term growth, although the announcement of several promising vaccines has provided some light at the end of the tunnel.

Economic Update

Economic Update September 2020

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

The economic shock caused by the COVID-19 crisis is severe - many countries have suffered the steepest fall in output since official records began, most are in recession and the path to recovery is anything but certain.

Economic Update

Economic Update March 2020

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

The cautious optimism that greeted 2020 has already evaporated, following the emergence of a new virus. A material global economic impact is likely, but much uncertainty surrounds its severity and duration, and the policy response.

Economic Update

Economic Update December 2019

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

The past year was characterised by a global slowdown, precipitated by increasing geopolitical uncertainty and heightened trade frictions.

Economic Update

Economic Update September 2019

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

August was a challenging month for equity markets with the escalation of the US-China trade tensions. Recession fears re-emerge as the flow through impact from weaker trade growth now threatens to flow through economies exposed to global trade.

Economic Update

Economic Update August 2019

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

With the US Federal Reserve easing its policy rate for the first time since 2008, the era of removing post-financial crisis monetary stimulus has now officially drawn to a close.

Economic Update

Economic Update July 2019

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Global trade tensions remained a key focus of markets over recent weeks, clouding the outlook for economic growth.

Economic Update

Economic Update June 2019

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

May proved a challenging month for global investors, with equity markets selling off throughout the month. The primary factor driving global markets lower was an intensification of global trade tensions.

Economic Update

Economic Update May 2019

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

The global economy is poised at “a delicate moment”. While economic growth will likely soften further through 2019, fears of imminent recession are largely overblown.

Economic Update

Economic Update April 2019

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Conflicting signals emanated from the world’s two largest economies over the past month, each with implications for the global growth outlook.

Economic Update

Economic Update March 2019

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Global equity markets have continued to recover through February. The fundamental question for investors is for how much longer can gains persist if global growth continues to decelerate throughout the course of 2019.

Economic Update

Economic Update February 2019

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

Looking ahead, geopolitical concerns and anxiety as to the future prospects of the global economy will likely ebb and flow for some time to come yet.

Economic Update

Economic Update November 2018

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

In 2018 the unusually synchronised economic growth upswing that characterised 2016 and 2017 ended.

Economic Update

Economic Update October 2018

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

As the US economy continues to motor along, its outperformance is leaving other global economies in its wake.

Economic Update

Economic Update September 2018

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

IFM Investors Chief Economist Dr Alex Joiner comments on the latest global economic news and trends.

Economic Update

Economic Update August 2018

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

With global trade tensions rising, it is becoming increasingly evident that ‘trade wars’ are threatening to reopen ‘currency wars’.

Economic Update

Economic Update July 2018

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

As the second half of 2018 begins it appears that peak investor and participant bullishness towards the much vaunted synchronous global economic cycle has now passed.

Economic Update

Economic Update June 2018

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

As we approach the mid-point of 2018, it seems appropriate to look back to see how markets have performed so far this year, and why.

Economic Update

Economic Update May 2018

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) biannual World Economic Outlook (WEO) was released in April.

Economic Update

Economic Update April 2018

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

The volatility that characterised global investment markets in February and March has continued into April.

Economic Update

Economic Update March 2018

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

The US economic outlook is of key interest to investors globally as it drives the underlying prospects for financial markets.

Economic Update

Economic Update February 2018

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

As 2017 ended, markets had entered a bliss point, with strong returns in a low volatility environment.

Economic Update

Economic Update November 2017

Alex Joiner,
Chief Economist

We entered 2017 full of trepidation. Geopolitical risks were taking precedence over economic ones, and a dreaded “Black Swan” event was seemingly a very real prospect.