Economic Update June 2025: Tariffs, trade and tension

Key takeaways

Economic Growth: Ongoing downside risks to global growth, notably in the US. US stagflation risks, most others disinflation risks.

Geopolitics: Uncertainty remains extremely high based on announcements from US Administration

Equity markets: Earnings still discounting economic downside.

Fixed income: Starting yields attractive, HY credit also discounting economic risks.

Equity markets recoiled in the aftermath of ‘Liberation Day’ but it was a reversal in the bond market that saw the Trump Administration reassess. Equities have rallied since then on incrementally better news flow, but uncertainty still clouds the economic outlook. Bond markets face their own challenges as yields edge higher due to stagflation and fiscal risks in the US.

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Written by

Alex Joiner

Chief Economist

Frans van den Bogaerde

Economist

Chris Skondreas

Economist

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