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Economic Update June 2025

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Key takeaways

Economic Growth: Ongoing downside risks to global growth, notably in the US. US stagflation risks, most others disinflation risks.

Geopolitics: Uncertainty remains extremely high based on announcements from US Administration  

Equity markets: Earnings still discounting economic downside.

Fixed income: Starting yields attractive, HY credit also discounting economic risks.  

Equity markets recoiled in the aftermath of ‘Liberation Day’ but it was a reversal in the bond market that saw the Trump Administration reassess. Equities have rallied since then on incrementally better news flow, but uncertainty still clouds the economic outlook. Bond markets face their own challenges as yields edge higher due to stagflation and fiscal risks in the US. 

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Meet the authors

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Alex Joiner

Alex Joiner is Chief Economist at IFM Investors. He is responsible for the firm’s economic, financial market and geopolitical risk analysis that is key in IFM’s investment process. In this capacity he engages with IFM’s domestic and global clients on macro-investment trends and themes.

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Frans van den Bogaerde

Frans supports the Chief Economist with the firm’s economic, financial market, and policy analysis and forecasting. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance & Economics) with Honours in Finance (First Class) from the University of Melbourne.

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Chris Skondreas

Chris supports the Chief Economist with the firm's economic, financial market, and policy analysis and forecasting. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Economics and Finance) from Monash University.

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